@bayeslord I think that's too strong, I've read a lot of Yud's content and apparently I'm too stupid to grok his reasoning-> p(doom) ... maybe I'm overestimating myself but if idgi I think most ppl won't either
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Reply · Oct 15, 2023@DeeperThrill @RandolphCarterZ lol and I'm over here trying to work out my p(doom) w bayes theorem & gpt...Reply · Oct 15, 2023@DeeperThrill @RandolphCarterZ For a long time I really did assume p(doom) was the result of a robust model w empirical data so far as we can get it…Reply · Jun 8, 2023@daniel_271828 thinks p(doom) > .01%Reply · Dec 29, 2023@RandomSprint wouldn't this imply we got alignment right on the first try, which is what doomers like Yud say is extremely improbable?