@RandolphCarterZ right imo we should be trying to collaborate on figuring out actual p(doom) not quibbling over whether he said use nukes or just be willing to start a fight that results in nukes
More notes on nearby ideas
Reply · Oct 15, 2023@DeeperThrill @RandolphCarterZ For a long time I really did assume p(doom) was the result of a robust model w empirical data so far as we can get it…Reply · Jun 8, 2023@daniel_271828 thinks p(doom) > .01%Reply · Aug 22, 2023@PipFoweraker my p(doom) is small enough that I don't have a good feel for how something like that would affect it???Reply · Oct 15, 2023@DeeperThrill @RandolphCarterZ lol and I'm over here trying to work out my p(doom) w bayes theorem & gpt...