there's something about recursive self improvement & exponential takeoff & extending trend lines to infinity... my brain just shrugs away from it and says everything hits constraints, just as any species does in the environment, and that the world is complex and things are never quite as good or as bad as we imagine
same attitude wrt longtermism really, that my error bars grow so large so quickly that it becomes pointless to talk about the distant future as a reason to do anything, really
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Quote tweet · Nov 21, 2023@qephatziel does it in any way relate to this thread? https://x.com/mimi10v3/status/1725582140480323705Reply · Oct 5, 2023@neuralvarez yes... I mean, part of my belief is that long-termism is way overconfident in their assumption that we can predict cause & effect of our…Reply · Nov 12, 2022@CineraVerinia Imo the problem w longtermism (accurate prediction of distant future) is potentially solvable by a Superintelligence… so developing ASI…Reply · Jun 2, 2022@samue1h @_holyweather Certainly seems like a factor in learning from the past to predict the future, which is of utmost importance for the…